Biggest Surprises and Disappointments for the 2026 MLB Season

This is a piggyback post off the one the dropped yesterday. However, it’s very player focused. Collaborating with Baseball Scoops is Phillyfan7 and we’ve compiled a list of players who have surprised us, but have also disappointed us. So, let’s dive into the list shall we.

Baseball Scoops Surprises/Disappointments

Surprises

Davis Martin: Chicago White Sox

Martin was a recent highlighted article on the Baseball Scoops Substack and it’s warranted. There had to be belief that the White Sox would be better, but even this is a surprise. As great as the bats are, the pitching has been a major bright spot. It all starts with Davis Martin.

Martin is a homegrown talent and finally made the infamous leap from reliever to starter and has been good in both. Last season was his heaviest workload of his career and now he’s just taken that next leap.

Martin currently has the third best ERA in baseball (1.61), trailing only Cam Schlittler and Nick Martinez. Also, his FIP is the fifth best in baseball, so he’s pitching as dominant as he ever has. Martin ranks in the 96th percentile for pitching run value and his execution has been better. He lowered his walk rate by 4+, raised his strikeout rate 10.1%, and is generating more chase and swing and miss.

He doesn’t have the flashiest velocity, but he’s executing and that’s what matters most.

Bryce Elder: Atlanta Braves

Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves

The Braves rotation is thriving and Bryce Elder is a massive reason why. He has been able to fill the shoes left behind by Spencer Schwellenbach and has been able to be a steady presence behind Chris Sale. For the last two seasons, his FIP has always been a run lower than what his ERA is. This year, he’s dominant.

Elder has a 2.01 ERA and to go with a 3.19 FIP. He doesn’t give up barrels, limits hard contact, so that’s a good sign. When you look at his baseball savant, he’s a truly intriguing pitcher. End of the day, Elder is pitching the best he has, ranking in the 99th percentile for fielding run value.

Disappointments

Fernando Tatis Jr.: San Diego Padres

This one is going to be very simple. This is a player that is a very elite defender and has shown to be a prominent bat in this league. However, he is in company with Chandler Simpson who is a player that doesn’t have any power in his game and in fact ranks in the 1st percentile for hard hit hate. For Tatis Jr., he ranks in the 99th percentile for hard hit rate. What they have in common is they both don’t have a home run this season.

Tatis is hitting .232 and his OPS is below .600. It is far from ideal and you have to imagine that if and when he gets going, that can turn the Padres fortunes around. To see him without a home run to this point in the season is very disappointing and also surprising at the same time.

Erin Hooley/AP

Andrew Abbott: Cincinnati Reds

With no Hunter Greene once again, the Reds needed guys to step up. Chase Burns has been one of the best pitchers this entire season, but one guy that was an All-Star last season is having a disappointing season. Andrew Abbott isn’t thriving like he was last season.

His ERA has jumped to 3.97 (highest of his career), and the FIP is right in line with it (4.75). He’s managed to have the highest BB/9 of his career (4.03), so giving free passes isn’t ideal. Furthermore, the K/9 has gone down from 8.06 to 6.04. It’s not a very ideal recipe for success. He does keep the ball on the ground, which is ideal with the infield behind him, but regardless this is a tough step back for him.

PhillyFan Surprises/Disappointments

Hey everyone, it’s Phillyfan, I’m so excited to be collaborating with Baseball Scoops on this post - let’s get into my disappointing/surprising players!!!

From improbable breakout stars in Miami to high-priced collapses in San Francisco, here are the biggest surprises and disappointments of the year so far.

Surprises

Otto Lopez: Miami Marlins

After a previous career high of just .270, Lopez has really turned it on in 2026. He’s currently hitting .346, good for best in the major leagues. In an era where contact-only hitters are often undervalued, Lopez is proving to be much more than that. All underlying metrics point to him being more than just a slap hitter - Lopez has an average exit velocity of 90.3 MPH and a 9.6% barrel rate. The hard-hit rate has jumped to 44.2% with a 2.2 fWAR, making him one of the most valuable defensive shortstops in the game. His K-rate has dropped to 16.6%, placing him in the 78th percentile among all hitters.

Lopez is hitting the best he ever has, leading MLB in AVG while hitting the ball much harder than he ever has, being a defensive cornerstone in the process. He’s an amazing player that the Marlins will surely try and build around.

While Lopez is a four-year veteran finding a new gear, the Guardians have found an unexpected spark in a rookie who is rewriting his own scouting report…

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Parker Messick: Cleveland Guardians

While Messick was expected by some to be good, nobody thought he’d be THIS good.

From MLB.com:

“Similar to Joey Cantillo but with more strike-throwing ability, he offers a high floor as at least a back-of-the-rotation starter.”

Yeah, Messick shattered THAT scouting report, along with many others. Projected as a back-rotation guy, he’s quickly becoming the Guardians ace. He’s 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA, striking out 64 in 58.2 innings. Messick’s rocking a 9.8 K/9 and is firmly in the race for AL Rookie of The Year. His fastball has been one of the best in all of baseball, sitting at 98th percentile in run value. And it’s not elite because of velocity - it’s elite because of his amazing extension and location. His changeup looks exactly like that elite heater before it completely falls off the table - it’s just so hard to stop! Add in the sharp cut, biting slider, and eye-popping curve, and you’ve got a frontline starter. In the modern era, you don’t generally see pitchers go super long into games — Messick has elite stamina and durability, pitching at least 5 innings in every one of his starts this year, while going 6+ in half of them. Messick isn’t just dominating - he’s crushing the “high-floor” label and mowing down everyone.

The Guards have to be ecstatic to land someone who looks like a future rotation ace with his nasty five-pitch-mix.

Disappointments

Trevor Rogers: Baltimore Orioles

After a breakout 2025 where Rogers went 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, he’s suddenly regressed to one of the worst in baseball. In a Baltimore rotation plagued by inconsistency, Rogers was expected to be the anchor - instead, his regression has left the Orioles' staff in a tailspin. He’s working with a 3.6 BB/9. He’s always been a bit of a groundball pitcher, but his K rate has plummeted to 16.4% and his BABIP has skyrocketed to .333. The underlying 2025 stats suggest regression was coming, but THIS level of regression from a true ace in 2025 is stunning.

Rogers has a pitching run value in the 3rd percentile, and his offspeed run value has brutally fallen from 94th percentile in 2025 to 1st percentile this year. It’s statistical regression everywhere from Rogers, and the Orioles just need to hope they can mold him back into a quality starter.

D. Ross Cameron / Imagn Images

Rafael Devers: San Francisco Giants

The blockbuster trade that brought Rafael Devers to San Francisco was supposed to be the Giants' salvation; instead, it’s become a cornerstone of their collapse. Coming off a season where Devers hit .252 while swatting 35 HRs and getting 109 RBIs, he looks like a shell of his former self. He’s only managed a measly 6 home runs and is slugging a poor .401 with a -0.4 WAR. Devers has always struck out a fair amount, but this season has kicked it up another notch. His K% is 30.3% while his Walk rate is 6.6%, despite having a walk rate of 15% last year. While his .246 average in 2026 might seem passable on the surface, the underlying metrics tell a far grimmer story: his .214 expected batting average (xBA) suggests he’s been the beneficiary of luck rather than skill. He’s sunk from a 94th percentile Batting Run Value in 2025 to 7th percentile this year.

This isn't just a slump, it's an offensive crisis that the Giants can't afford to ignore.

And that will do it for this article!

I really want to thank Baseball Scoops for this collab, and I want to thank all of you for reading this piece!